"OTTAWA (CP) _ A new poll is challenging the notion that international academic and author Michael Ignatieff is the front-runner in the Liberal leadership race, suggesting instead that the top five candidates are virtually running neck and neck.
...When voters who aren't sure are taken out of the mix, former Ontario premier Bob Rae inches ahead of the others: 26 per cent of respondents said they would vote Liberal or consider voting Liberal if Rae were at the party's helm, compared with 23 per cent for former cabinet minister Stephane Dion and 21 per cent for Ignatieff.
In Ontario, Rae has an even wider lead over the perceived front-runner, with 11 per cent more voters saying they would vote Liberal or consider voting Liberal if he were leader than if Ignatieff won."
Great news for the Rae folks, particularly given the concern that Rae would have trouble winning... should be an interesting weekend in Quebec...
3 comments:
Am I allowed to say, "told yah"?
Nevertheless, one should not over read the decima poll (the leader is being selected by delegates and those voters are not available to pollsters); regardless, as I said yesterday, Ignatieff must come out clean and clear on the war in a way that relates to Canadians before delegate selection or the Rae-Dion combination may defeat (with the edge going to Rae).
Any numbers on Kennedy? You figure he'd be doing well in Ontario at least.
I think this still just reflects name recognition.
Polls are of course of limited value generally because they are merely a snapshot in time and this poll interviews all Canadians, including non-Liberals. What is generally more important is the trend. So it is difficult to say what it means that the Tories are at 35% (give or take) at the polls but more significant to note that they are at the same popularity level as they were on January 23 and even much more significant to note that they were up at 40% and are trending down.
A similar poll to this one was taken in the spring and it showed Ignatieff - who was being called the frontrunner even then - to be way behind, fourth if I recall and a poor showing in Quebec. So he has actually shown the most growth in this poll. But I personally don't think even that makes much difference because all that means is that over the summer more Canadians have read about him and recognize his name.
That Bob Rae does the best in Ontario and Quebec underscores even more the name recognition. Someone should try to find those old polls to compare how he has trended after a summer long campaign by him and the other candidates.
Ted
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