Jack and Gilles go up the hill...

... to fetch Stephen a pail of water,

And Stephen realized he doesn't need two water boys...

It looks as though we may be staring at another minority government next week. It's going to be an interesting one too.

Should Mr. Harper form a minority, I am sure that pundits will be looking back to Clark and Diefenbaker trying to decide if either are a relevant precursors to Harper's possible government.

Already there are some interesting paralells to Clark's reign. Some may remember that Clark had allied himself with the Ralliement creditiste. The RC was a mish-mash of Quebec seperatists and social democrats, in some respects similar to the Bloc Quebecois. He was defeated on a budget when his allies abstained.

Harper could find himself in a similar position.

Should he be elected PM on Monday, I am not sure it is unrealistic that Mr. Duceppe and the BQ recognizing that in spite of Gomery et al, the Liberals have a strong history in Quebec, and will do everything in their power to ensure Mr. Harper remains in place until the next referendum, expected in the next 36 months.

Which puts Layton in an interesting position.

Actually, it puts him in a pretty uninteresting position.

Layton, I predict, will quickly find out that no one cares what he thinks. Harper, propped up by seperatists, just won't need him. And if he squeaks on many of his key issues, no doubt Harper will remind him of his willingness to work with him in opposition and in the election.

This will change the political dynamic in Canada.

Harper has been comfortable to climb into bed with the seperatists in opposition, but its a different story from the Prime Minister's office. With a referendum looming if Charest loses, he will have to step very carefully.

Pulling a Deifenbaker and pummelling the Liberals in the hope of winning a majority could be a very short-sighted strategy, again because of the situation in Quebec.

Already the mistrust of politicians and the federal system is high. We've all noted CBC/Ekos & Globe and Mail polling demonstrating an interest in change, and low confidence level of politicians in Ottawa. But be careful, the polling didn't show a low-confidence in politicians of one particular party, it was a low-confidence towards politicians in general.

Holding a scandal-pinata party in Ottawa won't build any trust. Should the tories come in, the "change" will have been made. And should the Parti Quebecois defeat Jean Charest and Parti liberal du Quebec, Quebecers will quickly have a choice to make another change. A change, perhaps, less welcome.

Whoever wins on Monday will have to tread carefully.

Very carefully.